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Would Forgiving Student Loans Stimulate the Economy?

Would Forgiving Student Loans Stimulate the Economy?

Mark Kantrowitz / Publisher of FinAid and FastWeb

August 09, 2009

Several grass-roots groups were established on Facebook in early 2009 calling for the cancellation of all student loan debt under the theory that this will stimulate the economy.

Most noteworthy is the group Cancel Student Loan Debt to Stimulate the Economy (see also www.forgivestudentloandebt.com) founded by Robert Applebaum, a New York attorney. This group has grown to have more than 220,000 members in just seven months. Another group, Stimulate the Economy — Forgive Student Loans is running a petition drive and has collected more than 40,000 signatures.

These groups have attracted attention from news media in part because of their rapid growth. Recent coverage includes The Huffington Post (February 5, 2009), US News & World Report (March 8, 2009), BusinessWeek (March 24, 2009), Washington Times (March 30, 2009), University Business (March 2009) and USA Today (May 12, 2009).

Would Loan Forgiveness Stimulate the Economy?

Both Mr. Applebaum and Mr. Bartoy argue that canceling all outstanding student loan debt would stimulate the economy and be more effective than the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. For example, Mr. Applebaum writes “Forgiving student loan debt would have an IMMEDIATE stimulating effect on the economy.” He argues that this would have a multiplying effect, that “tax revenues would go up, the credit markets will unfreeze and jobs will be created” and that “the fastest way to revive our ailing economy is to do something drastic to get consumers to spend”.

The Honorable Jim Sano, Chair of the Finance Committee for the Albany Common Council, has echoed these ideas in a proposed resolution calling on Congress to “offer programs to reduce student loan debt as an economic stimulus tool”. The Albany Common Council passed the loan forgiveness resolution on Monday, August 17, 2009 by a vote of 12 to 0.

It is an interesting idea, but would forgiving all student loan debt actually stimulate the economy?

Unfortunately, the stimulative effect of this proposal would be minimal because the annual payments on the debt amount to less than 4% of the debt. Let’s review the math:

  • There’s about $598 billion of federal education loans outstanding and about $132 billion of private student loans outstanding, a total of about $730 billion.

  • Only borrowers in active repayment and who are current on their loans would derive a cash flow benefit from loan forgiveness. While borrowers who are in a deferment or forbearance, delinquent or in default might derive a financial benefit from having their debt canceled, such forgiveness would not translate into increased consumer spending.

    • About half of all private student loans are in repayment, and of those, about one-fifth are either delinquent or in a forbearance. So only about 40% of outstanding private student loans are in active repayment and current.
    • Nearly 60% of federal education loans are in repayment, and of those, about a third are either delinquent or in a deferment or forbearance. So only about 40% of outstanding federal education loans are in active repayment and current.
    • 40% of $730 billion is $292 billion.

  • Most borrowers of federal education loans consolidate their loans to obtain an extended repayment, typically with a term of 20 years. Most private student loans also have a repayment term of 20 years. Assume an average interest rate of 7.0% on federal education loans and 11% on private student loans. Then the current annual payments on the education debt that is in active repayment total about $28.8 billion, 9.9% of the debt in active repayment and 3.9% of the $730 billion in outstanding debt.

So assuming that the borrowers would spend this windfall instead of saving it or using it to pay down other debt, this proposal would involve the government spending $730 billion now in order to increase consumer spending by $28 billion. Since less than 4% of the cost of this proposal would be spent by consumers in the first year, it will clearly not have the “immediate stimulating effect” claimed by the proposal’s proponents.


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    benover

    almost 2 years ago

    WARNING: We are on the verge of a MASSIVE private student loan FIASCO in this country. Right now interest rates are at all time lows and only 40% are being actively repaid. Many of these loans have rates as high as 10% over prime. How on God's green earth are student loan borrowers going to pay these back when interest rates rise in the future??? As impossible as it is to pay back these toxic loans now, can you even imagine how painful it is going to be to pay them back when the interest rates rocket up to over 20% !?!? When these rates go into effect, YOUR BALANCE WILL DOUBLE EVERY 3-4 YEARS! This insanity needs to come to an end now. Congress needs to wake up now!!!

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    CambriaH5

    about 2 years ago

    This recession is going to last longer than the great depression. So everyone is going to have to deal with it. While going to school is an awesome idea, it doesn't open the job market anymore than it is unless new companies are started, which is nearly impossible. The loan forgiveness would be great, but I am by no means in as much debt as some people and thank goodness I never stuck my parents with loans. I mean it would be a great break for me, but at the same time, I dobut it's going to stimulate the economy. The stupid thing is people would just go and spend the money on more things that put them in to deeper debt. take the money you're saving on loan payments and go buy a new car, hmmm somehow I don't see this as a better idea than school. Besides that the interstrates for cars pretty much double when you get a loan. Out whole system is set up so that everyone stays in debt for most of their lives and if you do get ahead something generally happens to put you back in debt.

    I don't see much to get people out of dept unless cars are more reasonably priced, where you don't need 10 years to pay off a loan that is double or more what the car's initial cost was. Lets give everyone 6 credit cards so they can go further into dept. The only way this contry is getting out of debt is to reduce cost of items. I don't see how car companies can charge 40,000 dollars for a car. It doesn't cost anywhere near that much to make the car. Make things more affordable and the economy will be stimulated. Reduce the amount credit card companies and loan companies can charge for interest rates and maybe that would make a difference. I honestly don't see any one thing that will help elivate this crisis.

    You can bet that this isn't even the tip of the ice burg on how bad it's going to get. Everyone who thinks they've seen the worst are in for a rude awakening, it will get much worse before it every gets better.

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    JanineI3

    over 2 years ago

    As someone who already owes a substantial amount of money in undergrad loans and needs to go to grad school for my M.A. to obtain a license to work in my chosen field, I think that debt forgiveness is a great idea. I agree Cryn, what's wrong with giving it a chance? If it doesn't work then we can go back to what we're doing now.

    To the people who disagree and say that individuals in repayment need to learn that money doesn't grow on trees, what do you have to say about the insurance companies, automobile manufacturers, banks and other financial institutions who have been awarded billions of dollars by our government for their mismanagement and/or fraudulent acts? But it's okay for my hard earned tax dollars to go to them?!? Let's not even go into discussion about the amount of money we're spending daily on dealing with issues in the middle east.

    With regards to budgeting and living within my means, I've cut every kind of expenditure that I could. Currently, I am living at home with my parents for a small fee (trust me, it's not really a hit with the opposite sex), work full-time as a waitress, and basically the only bills I have to contend with are my cell phone and car insurance bills and I still can't pay the nearly $1,000 payment every month. I have never been on a vacation and my one luxury of going out to see a movie once a month has been nixed because I can't justify paying $10 for something that I can rent when it gets released.

    But what really infuriates and upsets me are the stories of fellow working class americans trying to better themselves and their families who are delving deeper into debt and despair as their loans go into default. Some individuals have even expressed that they are considering moving abroad because they believe it to be the only way to make a decent living or escape the stigma from loan issues. These are well-educated, hard-working, americans whose talents are going to be utilized by other countries when they could be doing good right here.

    We raise our children telling them that they can be anything they want to be when they grow up, but when they become adults they realize that they can't afford the education to make their dreams a reality.

    But in the meantime we'll keep rewarding billions of dollars to institutions who will squander it while we as a nation continue to sink further and further into debt.

    Just another day in the land of the free and the home of the depraved.

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    RodneyL40

    over 2 years ago

    Forgiving student loan is an excellent proposal. Instead of people being thrown in prison for being unable to pay them back, people can go to college and get and education so the working force can evolve. With more people working spending by consumers will grow which in essence can stimulate the economy and debts will be eliminated. I am all for this proposal and I hope that one day it will become a reality

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    AshleyB853

    over 2 years ago

    This proposal is not a good idea. There is no quick fix to our countries economic state. Ya, it would be nice for the individual, such as myself that owes over $20,000 in student loans for just my undergrad. But, for the country as a whole it is bad news. Things cost money, education costs money. To have the government expect a boost in the economy from a multiple billion dollar higher education loan deficit is unrealistic when you consider the amount of money our government would have to put out to rid people of their personal educational debit. Especially since 99.9% of individuals do not pay off there student loans in one huge lump sum, but in monthly payments averaging $200. An extra $200 a month is not going to mean buying a new house or an extravegent new car. Cause, the essentials of daily living have a higher priority than luxury. During uneasy times people are also more apt to save a dollar here and then when then can verse spending it, to save for a rainy day. We all need to take responsibility for our own decisions. No one forced us to take out these loans. We determined that we should take out these loans. Loans are an investment within ourselves and our potential capability. Have faith in yourselves. And, just make sure you are not to live above your means. Budgeting is essential!

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    ElenaT62

    over 2 years ago

    Although it may be difficult to accurately enumerate the revenue of this proposal in dollar amount, I can speak for myself. Without this burden hanging over my head, I would be more financially confident about making a large purchase (new car, condo, etc). My productivity would definitely increase in proportion to my financial stress. Forgiving this debt would remove the largest financial obstacle to my goal to continue as a public high school teacher for many more years.

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    MitalP8

    over 2 years ago

    I think providing more subsidized loans would be a better route. I am in medical school and will have $250000 in loans when I am done.

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    NullN285571

    over 2 years ago

    This is an interesting proposal and I'm looking forward to the outcome... I think this approach would create relief and goodness for the loan holders as well as the economy; but on the other hand the government would experience further debt.

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    AdamB1426

    over 2 years ago

    I think that this would be good for the economy, not only today but in the future also. The phrase "Generation Broke" is going to fit most of these kids aged 18 to 28. As an example my two oldest children between them owe $147,000. for College on Direct Loans - Parent Plus loans, currently they have both graduated College and have gone onto Medical and Law school. The loans have been in forebearance, due to the fact that I can not make the $1100./month payment. My Son has 3 more years of Medical School/Internship, and my Daughter has 3 years of Law School. When they are through they were to divide the loans and make the payments. However the Federal Gov't will not give me anymore Forebearance, they suggest Deferrment Due to Hardship. However I do not think that I will qualify for that, they do not take into account your mortgage, bills, loss of pay, Etc. Etc. I am not a rich person, just a normal middle class homeowner who is struggling like everyone else. I've wiped out all of my retirement money also just to get them this far. If we can not figure something to get us thru the next 3 years we will go into default and then my Son who is a High School Jr. will never be allowed to get a loan to get to College. I know that there are other familys in this same predicament, this doesn't bode well for the youngest Children of those family's. Also the interest rate should be arounf 3 to 4 %, not the 7 to 8% that we are getting, does the Government not know that there is a recession and no jobs to be had? We just do not know what to do or where to turn anymore, and I have until the end of October 2009 to try to get something worked out. Any ideas from anyone out there would a big help.
    Thanks

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    AlexisR309

    over 2 years ago

    I agree with this view point...Under the Obama administration they highlighted the notion for people to return to school in order to make a better and brighter future to have more privilence for jobs. Currently I am a first time B.S. Graduate who is attempting to change careers under the recession to find job stability. Now that I'm returning to school I've learned that I've almost used up all my subsidized & unsubsidized loans which leaves me at the mercy of high private & bank loans. Who knows how I'm going to pay for school since my credit is shot due to me working part-time to go to school. I have a 3.94 GPA and my school doesn't offer any type of scholarships. I feel that by doing loan forgiveness it would give me an opportunity for a good start especially in this rough time period. I mean frankly, its not really the American people's fault were in this horrible monstronscity; its the government. I mean something is going to have to give b/c if not we can plan to be in this recession for much longer than we would have liked and thats the truth!!

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    kateeno

    over 2 years ago

    In my opinion, it is the less-privileged people who have to struggle with student loan repayment, and we bear that burden for a great part of our adult lives and some find it difficult to move ahead with this debt that seems to never go away. Even if the government cannot forgive entire amounts, forgive something substantial. We are the ones who will stimulate the economy the greatest if we have the resources to do so.

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    admcarr

    over 2 years ago

    I don't understand what is so wrong with forgiviness. If the government can spend millions of dollars to bail out banks for mortages why can't they bail out people. Banks who gave out these mortages were giving to people who decided to live well above their means.And anyway don't the two things that help people have money are recieveing an education and businesses. I think the governmet would have bailed out small bussinesses and helped with student loans you would not have people in companies giving money to exceutives for trips to The Bahamas and The Virgin Islands. And if you want to talk about what this bail out is like it is not communism is would be considered a socialist act and I believe if you get into a school whether or not you have money you should be able to go.

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    piftisha

    over 2 years ago

    Way to repeat already old and stale statistics. Feel free to ignore the fact that some people can't find jobs that allow them to pay their student loans so they remain unemployed, therefore are not paying taxes at all. Don't mention that large amounts of student debt, whether they are in repayment OR forbearance/deferment, can prevent one from purchasing a car, or a house, or any other major investment.

    Forgiving student loans now would not only immediately stimulate the economy, but it would provide a long term stimulus far into the future.

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    AnnMS2

    over 2 years ago

    I totally agree with crystall 662 and lavoh3 about the loan forgiviness for reasons, when someone goes into school and then looses there home and cannot finish there school and then becomes into default that person becomes homeless then that person schould be able to go back to school and become a better person and be able to get a steady depedable job so they can help there children relize that thats what you really need in this world today so they would not be on foodstamps and take advantage of that, some people cannot help that because they cannot read or write and there is also some people out there that try to live on a fewbucks i know its hard

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    hmsmalley

    over 2 years ago

    I totally agree with GlendaG44. I feel that we all need to stand up and take notice that it's not just about the current people in the world today but the children of our future! The past will continue to repeat its self if nothing is done about the reoccuring loan debt of thousands of Americans out there. The future is ours for the taking if we would only look at the future for what its worth not for the repeat of the past. STAND UP AND TAKE NOTICE AMERICA!!!!!!!!